Bull Rankings model

Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS) stock analysis

Banks - Regional. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
PFS
Provident Financial Services, Inc. · Banks - Regional
73.3Financial strength
$22.04Oct 13 close$2.9B
1Y Target$27.75Analyst consensus · 6 analysts
5Y Target$40.63Compound horizon
10Y Target$60.27Long-dated conviction
Rev+25.3%
A-
Revenue +25.3% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%)
P/E9.2x
A-
P/E 9.2 — cheaper than most Financial Services peers (≈25th pctile)
ROE11.1%
B
ROE 11.1% — acceptable capital return
P/B0.99
A-
P/B 0.99 — near book, cheap for a profitable franchise
Yield4.3%
B+
Yield 4.3% — healthy income

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Financial strength · 73.3 / 100
Profitability59.6
Value (P/B)85.3
Income83.5

A peer-relative read for financials on profitability (ROE), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
14% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Banks - Regional · market cap $2.9b. 14% off the 52-week high of $25.49. Revenue growing +25% — in hypergrowth territory. 6 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $27.75 (implying +26% upside).
Moat
Net margin 35% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 11% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. Financial moat — scale of deposit base / underwriting franchise plus regulatory capital advantages. The largest players compound book value through cycles that erase smaller competitors.
Risk
Balance-sheet financial — book value, net interest margin, and credit loss provisions are the lever points; a rates regime change or a deterioration in the loan book moves the stock more than EPS does.
Horizon
1-3 yr $27.75 (6-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $40.63 at ~13% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $60.27 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.

Not enough history yet — the model records PFS's score after each daily run, and the chart appears once a few days have accumulated.

PFS at a glance

FINANCIAL STRENGTH · BANKPROFITABILITY60VALUE85COVERED INCOME8473.3/100 on our peer scale — not the quality-growth score.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+17%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$22LOW $17.7HIGH $25.5Trading at the 56th percentile of its 52-week range ($17.7–$25.5).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.6%
90-day change+2.7%
Forward EPS estimate$2.58

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect PFS to earn is drifting higher (+2.7%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
90
Position size
$1,984
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$16.53
25% below $22.04
$ at risk if stopped
$495.90
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS): score, valuation & FAQ

Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS) is a Banks - Regional company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A-), P/E (A-) and P/B (A-).

Is PFS a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades PFS on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. That is driven by Rev (A-), P/E (A-) and P/B (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Provident Financial Services, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade PFS?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, PFS isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage, where it rates strongest on Rev (A-), P/E (A-) and P/B (A-).

Is PFS overvalued or undervalued?

We don't publish a discounted-cash-flow value for PFS, and not because the business is unprofitable. For a lender, insurer or property trust, "free cash flow" measures balance-sheet growth rather than owner earnings — loan originations and repayments run through operating cash flow — so discounting it would produce a confident-looking number with nothing behind it. PFS is judged on book value, return on equity and income cover instead, which is what the financial-strength card shows.

What are the main risks of investing in PFS?

Balance-sheet financial — book value, net interest margin, and credit loss provisions are the lever points; a rates regime change or a deterioration in the loan book moves the stock more than EPS does.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

More Regional Banks stocks by score

All Financial Services rankings →

Analyze another ticker →