D/E 3.05 — most levered decile in Healthcare (≈95th pctile)
P/E25.8xB
P/E 25.8 — near the Healthcare median (≈60th pctile)
PEG1.19B+
PEG 1.19 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 70.6
Quality62.8
Growth89.7
Value62.4
Why this score
Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
11% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value250% aboveest. fair value ~$13
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~38% a year for the next decade — vs the ~8% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
ROIC23.9% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.
Why now
The bull case hinges on PACS’ dominant position in the skilled‑nursing and assisted‑living market, where its portfolio of high‑occupancy facilities fuels a revenue growth of 15.2% YoY and generates $121 m of free cash flow. Coupled with a stellar ROE of 24.2%, the business compounds earnings faster than peers, justifying our model’s Growth pillar of 90. The thesis rests on the continuation of this compounding as the senior‑care demand curve steepens.
Moat
PACS’ moat derives from the high switching costs and regulatory barriers inherent to its skilled‑nursing and assisted‑living facilities; residents and insurers rarely relocate once a bed is secured, locking in cash flows. The 24.2% ROE reflects pricing power that stems from limited alternative capacity in many U.S. markets, a lever competitors cannot quickly replicate without massive capex and licensing hurdles.
Risk
The bear case centers on the steep valuation premium: a forward P/E of 25.9 and a reverse‑DCF implied free‑cash‑flow growth of ~39% per year vastly outpace the actual 15.2% revenue expansion, suggesting the market is pricing in unrealistic upside. Add to that a debt‑to‑equity of 3.05, which could strain balance‑sheet flexibility if financing conditions tighten. A pull‑back in occupancy or a rise in borrowing costs would validate the overvaluation argument.
Horizon
1-3 yr $59.20 (5-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $86.67 at ~15% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $128.58 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
PACS vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
PACS
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.63
0.83
-0.21
Growth
0.90
0.87
+0.03
Value
0.62
0.76
-0.14
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · PACS
Trend
-1.4 over 49 daily scores
From 72.0 (Jun 22) → 70.6 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
PACS at a glance
Every figure here comes from the same audited fundamentals behind the score. Charts drawn from data the score does not use say so on the card.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+10.9%
90-day change
+8.1%
Forward EPS estimate
$2.71
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect PACS to earn is materially higher (+8.1%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →
Position sizing · PACS
$
%
%
Shares to buy
45
Position size
$1,977
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$32.95
25% below $43.94
$ at risk if stopped
$494.32
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
PACS Group, Inc. (PACS): score, valuation & FAQ
PACS Group, Inc. (PACS) is a Medical Care Facilities company that scores 70.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are Rev (B+) and PEG (B+), while D/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, PACS sits about 250% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 38% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is PACS a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores PACS 70.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (B+) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of PACS Group, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does PACS score 70.6 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on growth at 89.7 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 62.4 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. PACS earns its highest marks on Rev (B+) and PEG (B+), and is held back by D/E (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so PACS is measured against Medical Care Facilities peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is PACS overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $43.94, PACS sits about 250% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 38% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 25.8x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in PACS?
The bear case centers on the steep valuation premium: a forward P/E of 25.9 and a reverse‑DCF implied free‑cash‑flow growth of ~39% per year vastly outpace the actual 15.2% revenue expansion, suggesting the market is pricing in unrealistic upside. Add to that a debt‑to‑equity of 3.05, which could strain balance‑sheet flexibility if financing conditions tighten. A pull‑back in occupancy or a rise in borrowing costs would validate the overvaluation argument.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.