Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

MESO analysis

Mesoblast LimitedBiotechnology. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

MESO
Mesoblast Limited · Biotechnology
FCF-$52mF
Rev+191.4%A
D/E0.24B
P/S34.3xD
PEG
37Score
$17.32$2.2B
1Y Target$23.38Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$40.90Compound horizon
10Y Target$103.71Long-dated conviction
FCF-$52mTTM · 03/26
F
FCF is negative (-$52m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+191.4%FY YoY
A
Revenue +191.4% — hypergrowth, top decile · Computed from last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.24
B
D/E 0.24 — near the Healthcare debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/S34.3x
D
P/S 34.3x — most expensive decile in Healthcare (≈95th pctile)
PEG
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 37
Quality0.18
Growth1.00
Value0.28
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
  • Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
19% off the 12-month high
Why now
Biotechnology · market cap $2.2b. 19% off the 52-week high of $21.50. Revenue growing +191% — in hypergrowth territory.
Moat
Pharma moat is patent runway + pipeline depth — a single approved molecule funds the next generation of bets. Late-stage trials carry binary readouts that swing valuation 30%+.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$52m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. P/S 34.3x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard. ROE -18% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $23.38 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $40.90 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $103.71 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
-0.8 over 22 daily scores
From 37.8 (Jun 22) → 37.0 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
115
Position size
$1,992
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$12.99
25% below $17.32
$ at risk if stopped
$497.95
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Mesoblast Limited (MESO): score, valuation & FAQ

Mesoblast Limited (MESO) is a Biotechnology company that scores 37 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), while P/S (D) and FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is MESO a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores MESO 37 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by Rev (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Mesoblast Limited's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does MESO score 37 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). MESO earns its highest marks on Rev (A), and is held back by P/S (D) and FCF (F). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is MESO overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for MESO — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in MESO?

Free cash flow is negative (-$52m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. P/S 34.3x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard. ROE -18% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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