1Y Target$23.17Near-term target
5Y Target$28.45Compound horizon
10Y Target$36.32Long-dated conviction
FCF$237mTTM · 03/26CFCF $237m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+3.9%TTM YoYC+Revenue +3.9% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.72BD/E 0.72 — at market average, manageable
P/E10.3xA-P/E 10.3 — cheap relative to market and most sectors
PEG0.24APEG 0.24 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth
Why now
Medical Care Facilities · market cap $1.7b. 15% off the 52-week high of $24.99. PEG 0.24 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 6 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $23.17 (implying +9% upside).
Moat
ROE 21% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 136% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $23.17 (6-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $28.45 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $36.32 if the moat survives secular pressure.
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