Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

GRFS analysis

Grifols, S.A.Drug Manufacturers - General. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

GRFS
Grifols, S.A. · Drug Manufacturers - General
FCF$559mC+
Rev+9.4%B
D/E1.23C
P/E10.9xA
PEG0.19A
71Score
$8.15$5.5B
1Y Target$8.80Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$11.11Compound horizon
10Y Target$14.25Long-dated conviction
FCF$559mTTM · 06/26
C+
FCF $559m — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 06/26).
Rev+9.4%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +9.4% — at or above S&P median
D/E1.23
C
D/E 1.23 — more levered than most Healthcare peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E10.9x
A
P/E 10.9 — cheapest decile in Healthcare (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.19
A
PEG 0.19 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 71
Quality0.56
Growth0.77
Value0.97
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Foreign reporter (EUR)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
27% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value52% belowest. fair value ~$17
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-3% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability13% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC10.5% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Drug Manufacturers - General · market cap $5.5b. Down 27% from 52-week high of $11.14 — deep drawdown territory. PEG 0.19 — paying under fair value for the growth rate.
Moat
FCF converts 118% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. Pharma moat is patent runway + pipeline depth — a single approved molecule funds the next generation of bets. Late-stage trials carry binary readouts that swing valuation 30%+.
Risk
Net margin 3.0% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. ROE 2% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate. Trial-readout binary — late-stage clinical trials carry approve/reject outcomes that swing valuation 30%+; the equity is effectively a portfolio of these binary events, not a steady cash-flow business.
Horizon
1-3 yr $8.80 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $11.11 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $14.25 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
+13.9 over 31 daily scores
From 57.1 (Jun 22) → 71.0 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
245
Position size
$1,997
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$6.11
25% below $8.15
$ at risk if stopped
$499.19
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Grifols, S.A. (GRFS): score, valuation & FAQ

Grifols, S.A. (GRFS) is a Drug Manufacturers - General company that scores 71 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A) and PEG (A). On valuation, GRFS sits about 52% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -3% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is GRFS a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores GRFS 71 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A) and PEG (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Grifols, S.A.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does GRFS score 71 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). GRFS earns its highest marks on P/E (A) and PEG (A). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is GRFS overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $8.15, GRFS sits about 52% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -3% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 10.9x× P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in GRFS?

Net margin 3.0% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. ROE 2% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate. Trial-readout binary — late-stage clinical trials carry approve/reject outcomes that swing valuation 30%+; the equity is effectively a portfolio of these binary events, not a steady cash-flow business.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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