Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

FMS analysis

Fresenius Medical Care AGMedical Care Facilities. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

FMS
Fresenius Medical Care AG · Medical Care Facilities
FCF$1.1bC+
Rev+5.9%C+
D/E0.78C+
P/E13.0xA-
PEG0.87B+
72.6Score
$24.11$13.0B
1Y Target$25.60Analyst consensus · 7 analysts
5Y Target$32.32Compound horizon
10Y Target$41.45Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.1bTTM
C+
FCF $1.1b — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+5.9%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +5.9% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.78
C+
D/E 0.78 — above the Healthcare debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E13.0x
A-
P/E 13.0 — cheaper than most Healthcare peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG0.87
B+
PEG 0.87 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 72.6
Quality0.74
Growth0.75
Value0.80
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Foreign reporter (EUR)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
13% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value57% belowest. fair value ~$57
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-6% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability-25% · Fgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC11.2% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
FMS’s growth engine is its expansive outpatient dialysis network, which now serves a rising ESRD population across Germany and the United States. The business is riding a 5.9% revenue growth YoY while delivering a robust 23.6% profit margin and generating $1.1B of free cash flow, giving it the cash to fund clinic expansion and reinvest in patient services. The thesis rests on the continued compounding of cash‑rich clinic operations as the global dialysis market expands.
Moat
The company’s moat stems from its integrated care delivery model: patients receive dialysis, supplies, and remote monitoring through a single provider, creating high switching costs for both hospitals and patients. This vertical integration, combined with a 0.78 debt‑to‑equity ratio that supports steady investment, locks in recurring revenue streams that competitors find costly to replicate.
Risk
The bear case focuses on the modest 13× P/E multiple, which, while not excessive, reflects market skepticism about growth sustainability given the 0.82 beta and a 0.78 debt‑to‑equity ratio that could limit future cap‑ex. A slowdown in dialysis demand or tighter reimbursement could compress margins, and a breach of the 10‑year reverse‑DCF implied –6% free‑cash‑flow growth would invalidate the current valuation. Confirmation would be a miss on revenue growth or a margin contraction beyond the current 23.6% level.
Horizon
1-3 yr $25.60 (7-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $32.32 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $41.45 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
+21.2 over 22 daily scores
From 51.4 (Jun 22) → 72.6 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
82
Position size
$1,977
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$18.08
25% below $24.11
$ at risk if stopped
$494.25
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Fresenius Medical Care AG (FMS): score, valuation & FAQ

Fresenius Medical Care AG (FMS) is a Medical Care Facilities company that scores 72.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-) and PEG (B+). On valuation, FMS sits about 57% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -6% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is FMS a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores FMS 72.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A-) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Fresenius Medical Care AG's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does FMS score 72.6 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). FMS earns its highest marks on P/E (A-) and PEG (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is FMS overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $24.11, FMS sits about 57% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -6% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 13.0x× P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in FMS?

The bear case focuses on the modest 13× P/E multiple, which, while not excessive, reflects market skepticism about growth sustainability given the 0.82 beta and a 0.78 debt‑to‑equity ratio that could limit future cap‑ex. A slowdown in dialysis demand or tighter reimbursement could compress margins, and a breach of the 10‑year reverse‑DCF implied –6% free‑cash‑flow growth would invalidate the current valuation. Confirmation would be a miss on revenue growth or a margin contraction beyond the current 23.6% level.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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