Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

EXEL analysis

Exelixis, Inc.Biotechnology. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Biotech & Gene Editing
EXEL
Exelixis, Inc. · Biotechnology
FCF$1.2bC+
Rev+9.2%B
D/E0.09B+
P/E17.0xA-
PEG2.56C
74.1Score
$54.14$13.4B
1Y Target$53.00Analyst consensus · 17 analysts
5Y Target$77.60Compound horizon
10Y Target$115.11Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.2bTTM
C+
FCF $1.2b — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+9.2%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +9.2% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.09
B+
D/E 0.09 — below the Healthcare debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E17.0x
A-
P/E 17.0 — cheaper than most Healthcare peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG2.56
C
PEG 2.56 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 74.1
Quality96.8
Growth80.0
Value52.5
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
6% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value42% belowest. fair value ~$93
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-3% a year for the next decade — vs the ~16% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability94% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC37.8% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Exelixis’ CABOMETYX dominates the post‑anti‑angiogenic renal cell carcinoma niche, driving a 9.2% YoY revenue lift and a 35.3% profit margin that fuels a 46.7% ROE—our model’s Quality score of 96 anchors the thesis. The company’s aggressive buyback program, coupled with a debt‑to‑equity of only 0.09, keeps free cash flow at $1.2B and underpins a 16.1 P/E that is still modest for a growth‑oriented oncology player. The crux: CABOMETYX’s entrenched market share and high switching costs will sustain compound growth beyond the 9.2% revenue pace, delivering durable returns.
Moat
CABOMETYX’s multi‑kinase inhibition (MET, AXL, RET, VEGF) creates a therapeutic profile that is difficult for generics or newer agents to replicate, locking in a loyal oncology‑oncologist base. The drug’s approval for patients who have failed prior anti‑angiogenics gives it a first‑mover advantage in a high‑barrier, high‑margin segment, while the company’s 0.09 debt‑to‑equity ratio preserves pricing power and shields against competitive pricing pressure.
Risk
The primary threat is the looming entry of next‑generation MET inhibitors that could erode CABOMETYX’s 35.3% margin; a margin decline would compress the 16.1 P/E and negate the 46.7% ROE advantage. Additionally, the company’s heavy reliance on a single product line exposes it to revenue concentration risk—if CABOMETYX faces regulatory setbacks or a patent cliff, the 9.2% revenue growth could stall, and the 0.42 beta would amplify volatility. A sudden increase in debt or a P/E climb above 20 would confirm the bear case and break the bull thesis.
Horizon
1-3 yr $53.00 (17-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $77.60 at ~7% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $115.11 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

EXEL vs the Top Picks average

PillarEXELBook avgDiff
Quality0.970.84+0.13
Growth0.800.84-0.04
Value0.530.78-0.26

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+0.7 over 47 daily scores
From 73.4 (Jun 22) → 74.1 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+4.9%
90-day change+2.7%
Forward EPS estimate$4.16

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect EXEL to earn is drifting higher (+2.7%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
36
Position size
$1,949
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$40.61
25% below $54.14
$ at risk if stopped
$487.26
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Latest EXEL developments

Recent headlines from across the financial press · updated daily. Links open the source.

Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL): score, valuation & FAQ

Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL) is a Biotechnology company that scores 74.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-) and D/E (B+). On valuation, EXEL sits about 42% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -3% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is EXEL a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores EXEL 74.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A-) and D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Exelixis, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does EXEL score 74.1 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). EXEL earns its highest marks on P/E (A-) and D/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is EXEL overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $54.14, EXEL sits about 42% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -3% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 17.0x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in EXEL?

The primary threat is the looming entry of next‑generation MET inhibitors that could erode CABOMETYX’s 35.3% margin; a margin decline would compress the 16.1 P/E and negate the 46.7% ROE advantage. Additionally, the company’s heavy reliance on a single product line exposes it to revenue concentration risk—if CABOMETYX faces regulatory setbacks or a patent cliff, the 9.2% revenue growth could stall, and the 0.42 beta would amplify volatility. A sudden increase in debt or a P/E climb above 20 would confirm the bear case and break the bull thesis.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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