Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

CON analysis

Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.Medical Care Facilities. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

CON
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. · Medical Care Facilities
FCF$267mC
Rev+14.0%B+
D/E4.23D
P/E22.6xB+
PEG1.94C+
69.3Score
$35.00$4.5B
1Y Target$39.88Analyst consensus · 8 analysts
5Y Target$58.38Compound horizon
10Y Target$86.60Long-dated conviction
FCF$267mTTM
C
FCF $267m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+14.0%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +14.0% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E4.23
D
D/E 4.23 — most levered decile in Healthcare (≈95th pctile)
P/E22.6x
B+
P/E 22.6 — below the Healthcare median (≈40th pctile)
PEG1.94est.
C+
PEG 1.94 — modest premium; above fair value · PEG derived: P/E ÷ forward 1-year analyst EPS growth, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. Same earnings-growth basis as the reported figure on other rows.

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 69.3
Quality74.0
Growth82.2
Value54.6
Why this score
  • Durable high returns
  • Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
3% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value35% belowest. fair value ~$54
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-2% a year for the next decade — vs the ~12% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
ROIC62.1% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Concentra’s on‑site health clinic franchise, anchored by its Concentra Telemed platform, is scaling fast enough to keep the growth engine humming – revenue is expanding 14% YoY, free cash flow sits at a healthy $267 m and the business is returning 41.7% ROE. Those three pillars lock in a compounding earnings runway that our model flags as the strongest Growth pillar, making the current price a launchpad for a multi‑year rally.
Moat
The moat lives in the employer‑sponsored health model: large corporations lock in Concentra’s occupational‑health centers and on‑site clinics, creating high switching costs and a captive patient base. This locked‑in demand fuels the 41.7% ROE, as Concentra can price premium services and leverage its integrated Telemed and pharmacy arms without easy replication by generic providers.
Risk
Bears point to the balance sheet – a debt‑to‑equity of 4.68 and a reverse‑DCF that forces a -5% annual free‑cash‑flow growth assumption, a stark contrast to the 14% revenue climb. If debt service pressures force cap‑ex cuts or margin compression, the high PE of 22 looks stretched and the growth story unravels. A sustained dip in on‑site clinic utilization would confirm the downside.
Horizon
1-3 yr $39.88 (8-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $58.38 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $86.60 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

CON vs the Top Picks average

PillarCONBook avgDiff
Quality0.740.84-0.10
Growth0.820.84in line
Value0.550.78-0.24

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-2.7 over 47 daily scores
From 72.0 (Jun 22) → 69.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+8.3%
90-day change+7.6%
Forward EPS estimate$1.83

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CON to earn is materially higher (+7.6%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
57
Position size
$1,995
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$26.25
25% below $35.00
$ at risk if stopped
$498.75
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Latest CON developments

Recent headlines from across the financial press · updated daily. Links open the source.

Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON): score, valuation & FAQ

Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON) is a Medical Care Facilities company that scores 69.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (B+) and P/E (B+), while D/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, CON sits about 35% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -2% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is CON a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CON 69.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (B+) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CON score 69.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). CON earns its highest marks on Rev (B+) and P/E (B+), and is held back by D/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is CON overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $35.00, CON sits about 35% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -2% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 22.6x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CON?

Bears point to the balance sheet – a debt‑to‑equity of 4.68 and a reverse‑DCF that forces a -5% annual free‑cash‑flow growth assumption, a stark contrast to the 14% revenue climb. If debt service pressures force cap‑ex cuts or margin compression, the high PE of 22 looks stretched and the growth story unravels. A sustained dip in on‑site clinic utilization would confirm the downside.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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