Bull Rankings model

Centene Corporation (CNC) stock analysis

Healthcare Plans. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
CNC
Centene Corporation · Healthcare Plans
41.0Score
$65.36Oct 9 close$32.3B
1Y Target$71.78Analyst consensus · 18 analysts
5Y Target$125.54Compound horizon
10Y Target$224.36Long-dated conviction
FCF$9.0bTTM · 06/26
B+
FCF $9.0b — strong cash profile, above most peers · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+19.4%FY YoY
B+
Revenue +19.4% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.71
C+
D/E 0.71 — above the Healthcare debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/S*0.2x
A
P/S 0.2x — cheapest decile in Healthcare (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.78
A-
PEG 0.78 — strong; the growth comes cheap

* P/S replaces P/E — no positive earnings to divide by

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 41
Quality26.8
Growth86.0
Value29.9
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
6% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value78% belowest. fair value ~$291
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking 25% or more next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~12% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Healthcare Plans · market cap $32.3b. 6% off the 52-week high of $69.63. Revenue growing +19%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.78 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 18 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $71.78 (implying +10% upside).
Moat
Turnaround / out-of-favor name — GAAP-unprofitable for now, so the durability case is forward-looking: it rests on a recovery (margin normalization, a cyclical upturn or restructuring) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than on current reported results.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -2.8%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. ROE -20% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $71.78 (18-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $125.54 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $224.36 — return distribution heavily skewed.

CNC vs the Top Picks average

PillarCNCBook avgDiff
Quality2783-56
Growth8689-3
Value3076-46

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-15.5 over 82 daily scores
From 56.5 (Jun 22) → 41.0 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

CNC at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD41.0/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY26.8GROWTH86.0VALUE29.9Reverse-DCF · Price implies an outright decline from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$263–$337 ▸FAIR-VALUE RANGE · ▸ BEYOND THE SCALE$65.4PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$291 · price $65.4 is 78% below it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+80%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$65.4LOW $31.6HIGH $69.6Trading near its 52-week high ($31.6–$69.6).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.7%
90-day change+19.5%
Forward EPS estimate$5.35

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CNC to earn is materially higher (+19.5%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
30
Position size
$1,961
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$49.02
25% below $65.36
$ at risk if stopped
$490.20
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Centene Corporation (CNC): score, valuation & FAQ

Centene Corporation (CNC) is a Healthcare Plans company that scores 41 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/S (A), PEG (A-) and FCF (B+). On valuation, CNC sits about 78% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking 25% or more next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.

Is CNC a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CNC 41 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by P/S (A), PEG (A-) and FCF (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Centene Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CNC score 41 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on growth at 86.0 out of 100, with quality the weakest pillar at 26.8 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. CNC earns its highest marks on P/S (A), PEG (A-) and FCF (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so CNC is measured against Healthcare Plans peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is CNC overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $65.36, CNC sits about 78% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking 25% or more next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CNC?

Currently unprofitable (margin -2.8%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. ROE -20% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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