BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.
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BCRX
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
FCF$310mC
Rev+94.1%A
D/E——
P/S3.0xB+
PEG9.39D
57.4Score
$10.35$2.6B
1Y Target$21.90Analyst consensus · 10 analysts
5Y Target$38.30Compound horizon
10Y Target$97.14Long-dated conviction
FCF$310mTTMC
FCF $310m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+94.1%TTM YoYA
Revenue +94.1% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E——
D/E data unavailable — neutral default
P/S3.0xB+
P/S 3.0x — below the Healthcare median (≈40th pctile)
PEG9.39D
PEG 9.39 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 57.4
Quality0.67
Growth1.00
Value0.28
Why this score
Diluting shareholders
Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
8% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value77% belowest. fair value ~$45
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-19% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability186% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
Why now
Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · market cap $2.6b. 8% off the 52-week high of $11.22. Revenue growing +94% — in hypergrowth territory. 10 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $21.90 (implying +112% upside).
Moat
ROE 83% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. Pharma moat is patent runway + pipeline depth — a single approved molecule funds the next generation of bets. Late-stage trials carry binary readouts that swing valuation 30%+.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -51.7%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Trial-readout binary — late-stage clinical trials carry approve/reject outcomes that swing valuation 30%+; the equity is effectively a portfolio of these binary events, not a steady cash-flow business.
Horizon
1-3 yr $21.90 (10-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $38.30 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $97.14 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Score history · BCRX
Trend
+0.1 over 15 daily scores
From 57.3 (Jun 22) → 57.4 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Position sizing · BCRX
$
%
%
Shares to buy
193
Position size
$1,998
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$7.76
25% below $10.35
$ at risk if stopped
$499.39
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (BCRX): score, valuation & FAQ
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (BCRX) is a Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic company that scores 57.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A) and P/S (B+), while PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, BCRX sits about 77% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -19% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is BCRX a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores BCRX 57.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (A) and P/S (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does BCRX score 57.4 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). BCRX earns its highest marks on Rev (A) and P/S (B+), and is held back by PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is BCRX overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $10.35, BCRX sits about 77% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -19% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in BCRX?
Currently unprofitable (margin -51.7%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Trial-readout binary — late-stage clinical trials carry approve/reject outcomes that swing valuation 30%+; the equity is effectively a portfolio of these binary events, not a steady cash-flow business.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.