Bull Rankings model

Aflac Incorporated (AFL) stock analysis

Insurance - Life. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
AFL
Aflac Incorporated · Insurance - Life
65.7Financial strength
$116.44Oct 13 close$58.4B
1Y Target$117.80Analyst consensus · 15 analysts
5Y Target$148.72Compound horizon
10Y Target$190.73Long-dated conviction
Rev-9.3%
D
Revenue -9.3% — meaningful contraction
P/E12.5x
B
P/E 12.5 — near the Financial Services median (≈60th pctile)
ROE16.9%
B+
ROE 16.9% — above long-run market (~13%)
P/B1.92
B
P/B 1.92 — fair; a premium the market pays for returns
Yield2.1%
B
Yield 2.1% — modest income

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Financial strength · 65.7 / 100
Profitability80.7
Value (P/B)50.7
Income56.7

A peer-relative read for financials on profitability (ROE), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
11% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Insurance - Life · market cap $58.4b. 11% off the 52-week high of $130.22. Revenue -9% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating. 15 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $117.80 (implying +1% upside).
Moat
Net margin 27% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 17% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. $58.4b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Revenue contracting -9% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Regulatory capital risk — stricter capital requirements (CCAR, Basel) can force a dividend cut or a capital raise; the largest banks are most exposed because they're held to the tightest standards.
Horizon
1-3 yr $117.80 (15-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $148.72 at ~5% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $190.73 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Score history · AFL

Not enough history yet — the model records AFL's score after each daily run, and the chart appears once a few days have accumulated.

AFL at a glance

FINANCIAL STRENGTH · BANKPROFITABILITY81VALUE51COVERED INCOME5765.7/100 on our peer scale — not the quality-growth score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$116LOW $105HIGH $130Trading at the 44th percentile of its 52-week range ($105–$130).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+4%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.3%
90-day change+0.4%
Forward EPS estimate$7.59

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect AFL to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Position sizing · AFL
Shares to buy
17
Position size
$1,979
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$87.33
25% below $116.44
$ at risk if stopped
$494.87
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Aflac Incorporated (AFL): score, valuation & FAQ

Aflac Incorporated (AFL) is an Insurance - Life company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are ROE (B+), while Rev (D) rate weaker.

Is AFL a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades AFL on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. That is driven by ROE (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Aflac Incorporated's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade AFL?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, AFL isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage, where it rates strongest on ROE (B+) and weakest on Rev (D).

Is AFL overvalued or undervalued?

We don't publish a discounted-cash-flow value for AFL, and not because the business is unprofitable. For a lender, insurer or property trust, "free cash flow" measures balance-sheet growth rather than owner earnings — loan originations and repayments run through operating cash flow — so discounting it would produce a confident-looking number with nothing behind it. AFL is judged on book value, return on equity and income cover instead, which is what the financial-strength card shows.

What are the main risks of investing in AFL?

Revenue contracting -9% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Regulatory capital risk — stricter capital requirements (CCAR, Basel) can force a dividend cut or a capital raise; the largest banks are most exposed because they're held to the tightest standards.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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