★
UPS
United Parcel Service Inc · Logistics & Transportation
FCF$4.5bB
Rev-2.9%D+
D/E1.49C+
P/E16.0xB+
PEG——
75Score
$101.021Y Target$116.17Near-term target
5Y Target$162.69Compound horizon
10Y Target$239.15Long-dated conviction
FCF$4.5bTTM · 03/26B
FCF $4.5b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev-2.9%TTM YoYD+
Revenue -2.9% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E1.49totalC+
D/E 1.49 — moderately levered, watch interest coverage · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/E16.0xB+
P/E 16.0 — at or below S&P median, reasonable
PEG—proxy—
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Logistics & Transportation · market cap $82.3b. 17% off the 52-week high of $122.41.
Moat
ROE 33% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. $82.3b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $116.17 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $162.69 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $239.15 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Position sizing · UPS
Shares to buy
19
Position size
$1,919
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$75.77
25% below $101.02
$ at risk
$500.00
1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.