1Y Target$104.45Near-term target
5Y Target$115.67Compound horizon
10Y Target$170.02Long-dated conviction
FCF$9.8bTTM · 03/26B+FCF $9.8b — strong cash profile, above most peers · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+14.5%TTM YoYB+Revenue +14.5% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.48B+D/E 0.48 — healthy leverage, well below danger zone
P/E17.8xB+P/E 17.8 — at or below S&P median, reasonable
PEG5.83DPEG 5.83 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios
Why now
Software - Application · market cap $146.2b. Down 30% from 52-week high of $101.99 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +14%, comfortably above the S&P median. 50 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $104.45 (implying +45% upside).
Moat
Net margin 16% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 35% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 115% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Customer concentration — many software businesses depend on a handful of enterprise accounts; the loss of one $10M+ contract can swing the next quarter's growth narrative.
Horizon
1-3 yr $104.45 (50-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $115.67 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $170.02 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
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