1Y Target$104.42Near-term target
5Y Target$146.23Compound horizon
10Y Target$214.96Long-dated conviction
FCF$661mTTM · 01/26C+FCF $661m — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 01/26).
Rev-0.6%TTM YoYD+Revenue -0.6% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E0.63totalBD/E 0.63 — at market average, manageable · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/E26.6xC+P/E 26.6 — elevated; requires sustained growth to justify
PEG—proxy—PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Machinery · market cap $8.8b. 14% off the 52-week high of $105.19.
Moat
ROE 23% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $104.42 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $146.23 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $214.96 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
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