Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

TMHC analysis

Taylor Morrison Home CorpConsumer products. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Housing & Homebuilders
TMHC
Taylor Morrison Home Corp · Consumer products
FCF$688mC+
Rev+4.8%C+
D/E0.37B+
P/E10.0xA-
PEG2.07C
52.7Score
$72.45$6.7B
1Y Target$78.25Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$98.78Compound horizon
10Y Target$126.69Long-dated conviction
FCF$688mTTM · 03/26
C+
FCF $688m — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+4.8%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +4.8% — steady but below market-beating range · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E0.37
B+
D/E 0.37 — healthy leverage, well below danger zone
P/E10.0x
A-
P/E 10.0 — cheap relative to market and most sectors
PEG2.07proxy
C
PEG 2.07 — expensive relative to growth rate · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 52.7
Quality0.71
Growth0.49
Value0.42
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
0% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value37% belowest. fair value ~$115
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-7% a year for the next decade — vs the ~5% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Why now
Consumer products · market cap $6.7b. Trading near 52-week high of $72.50 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety.
Moat
ROE 11% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
Trading within 0% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction.
Horizon
1-3 yr $78.25 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $98.78 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $126.69 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

TMHC vs the Top Picks average

PillarTMHCBook avgDiff
Quality0.710.83-0.11
Growth0.490.91-0.42
Value0.420.75-0.32

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+7.7 over 34 daily scores
From 45.0 (Jun 22) → 52.7 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
27
Position size
$1,956
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$54.34
25% below $72.45
$ at risk if stopped
$489.04
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Taylor Morrison Home Corp (TMHC): score, valuation & FAQ

Taylor Morrison Home Corp (TMHC) is a Consumer products company that scores 52.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-) and D/E (B+). On valuation, TMHC sits about 37% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -7% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is TMHC a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores TMHC 52.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (A-) and D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Taylor Morrison Home Corp's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does TMHC score 52.7 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). TMHC earns its highest marks on P/E (A-) and D/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is TMHC overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $72.45, TMHC sits about 37% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -7% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 10.0x× P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in TMHC?

Trading within 0% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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