1Y Target$62.63Near-term target
5Y Target$77.60Compound horizon
10Y Target$99.06Long-dated conviction
FCF$688mTTM · 03/26C+FCF $688m — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+4.8%TTM YoYC+Revenue +4.8% — steady but below market-beating range · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E0.37B+D/E 0.37 — healthy leverage, well below danger zone
P/E8.1xA-P/E 8.1 — cheap relative to market and most sectors
PEG1.68proxyC+PEG 1.68 — modest premium; above fair value · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Consumer products · market cap $5.4b. Down 20% from 52-week high of $72.50 — deep drawdown territory.
Moat
ROE 11% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
Beta 1.51 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $62.63 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $77.60 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $99.06 if the moat survives secular pressure.
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