Bull Rankings model

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) stock analysis

Internet Content & Information. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
TME
Tencent Music Entertainment Group · Internet Content & Information
59.0Score
$8.38Oct 9 close$13.7B
1Y Target$12.63Analyst consensus · 28 analysts
5Y Target$18.48Compound horizon
10Y Target$27.42Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.4bTTM · 06/26
C+
FCF $1.4b — respectable but not differentiating · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+15.8%FY YoY
B+
Revenue +15.8% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.21
A-
D/E 0.21 — less debt than most Communication Services peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E10.2x
A-
P/E 10.2 — cheaper than most Communication Services peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG1.92
C+
PEG 1.92 — modest premium; above fair value

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 59
Quality76.5
Growth62.2
Value78.2
Why this score
  • Foreign reporter (CNY)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
65% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value53% belowest. fair value ~$18
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 12% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~8% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Internet Content & Information · market cap $13.7b. Down 65% from 52-week high of $23.86 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +16%, comfortably above the S&P median. 28 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $12.63 (implying +51% upside).
Moat
Net margin 26% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 11% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. FCF converts 108% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Down 65% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $12.63 (28-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $18.48 at ~17% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $27.42 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.

TME vs the Top Picks average

PillarTMEBook avgDiff
Quality7683-7
Growth6289-27
Value7876+2

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-5.0 over 81 daily scores
From 64.0 (Jun 22) → 59.0 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

TME at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD59.0/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY76.5GROWTH62.2VALUE78.2Reverse-DCF · Price implies roughly no growth from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$16.9$19.4FAIR-VALUE RANGE$8.4PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$17.9 · price $8.4 is 53% below it.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$8.4LOW $7.7HIGH $23.9Trading near its 52-week low ($7.7–$23.9).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock-65%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.1%
90-day change-4.7%
Forward EPS estimate$1.01

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect TME to earn is drifting lower (-4.7%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
238
Position size
$1,994
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$6.29
25% below $8.38
$ at risk if stopped
$498.61
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME): score, valuation & FAQ

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) is an Internet Content & Information company that scores 59 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-), P/E (A-) and Rev (B+). On valuation, TME sits about 53% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 12% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.

Is TME a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores TME 59 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (A-), P/E (A-) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Tencent Music Entertainment Group's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does TME score 59 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on value at 78.2 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 62.2 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. TME earns its highest marks on D/E (A-), P/E (A-) and Rev (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so TME is measured against Internet Content & Information peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is TME overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $8.38, TME sits about 53% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 12% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 10.2x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in TME?

Down 65% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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