1Y Target$137.94Near-term target
5Y Target$193.18Compound horizon
10Y Target$283.97Long-dated conviction
FCF$383mTTM · 03/26CFCF $383m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+3.3%TTM YoYC+Revenue +3.3% — steady but below market-beating range · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E0.60totalBD/E 0.60 — at market average, manageable · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/E27.0xC+P/E 27.0 — elevated; requires sustained growth to justify
PEG8.16proxyDPEG 8.16 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Machinery · market cap $8.3b. 3% off the 52-week high of $123.67.
Moat
Moat signals from the quantitative card are modest — profitability and capital efficiency are middle-of-pack. The thesis here depends on softer factors (switching costs, brand, distribution, regulatory protection) not captured by the 7-grade screen.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $137.94 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $193.18 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $283.97 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
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