1Y Target$99.00Near-term target
5Y Target$129.18Compound horizon
10Y Target$189.89Long-dated conviction
FCF$464mTTM · 03/26CFCF $464m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+46.2%TTM YoYARevenue +46.2% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.17A-D/E 0.17 — conservative leverage, strong balance sheet
P/E7.9xAP/E 7.9 — deep value; well below S&P median (~20x)
PEG2.46CPEG 2.46 — expensive relative to growth rate
Why now
Oil & Gas Midstream · market cap $4.0b. 8% off the 52-week high of $87.39. Revenue growing +46% — in hypergrowth territory. 9 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $99.00 (implying +23% upside).
Moat
Net margin 48% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 16% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.
Horizon
1-3 yr $99.00 (9-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $129.18 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $189.89 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
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