★
SKYT
Skywater Technology Inc · Semiconductors
FCF-$53mF
Rev+67.2%A
D/E1.16C+
P/S3.4xB
PEG0.24A
74Score
$37.371Y Target$50.45Near-term target
5Y Target$75.16Compound horizon
10Y Target$195.59Long-dated conviction
FCF-$53mTTM · 12/25F
FCF is negative (-$53m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 12/25).
Rev+67.2%TTM YoYA
Revenue +67.2% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E1.16totalC+
D/E 1.16 — moderately levered, watch interest coverage · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/S3.4xB
P/S 3.4x — in line with software/tech peers
PEG0.24proxyA
PEG 0.24 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Semiconductors · market cap $1.8b. Trading near 52-week high of $38.39 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. Revenue growing +67% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.24 — paying under fair value for the growth rate.
Moat
Net margin 21% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 75% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. Semiconductor moat is process-design IP plus customer qualification timelines — once designed in, the company captures multiple product cycles before a competitor can displace.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$53m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Trading within 3% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Beta 3.33 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $50.45 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $75.16 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $195.59 — return distribution heavily skewed.
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Position sizing · SKYT
Shares to buy
53
Position size
$1,981
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$28.03
25% below $37.37
$ at risk
$500.00
1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.