Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

PRCH analysis

Porch Group, Inc.Insurance - Property & Casualty. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

PRCH
Porch Group, Inc. · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Rev+33.7%A
P/E
ROE64.8%A
P/B
Yield0.0%C
Bank · REIT
$14.70$1.6B
1Y Target$16.29Analyst consensus · 7 analysts
5Y Target$28.48Compound horizon
10Y Target$72.23Long-dated conviction
Rev+33.7%
A
Revenue +33.7% — hypergrowth, top decile
P/E
P/S 3.6x — near the Financial Services median (≈60th pctile)
ROE64.8%
A
ROE 64.8% — world-class capital efficiency
P/B
P/B unavailable
Yield0.0%
C
No dividend / yield n/a

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
24% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value24% belowest. fair value ~$19
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~8% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability38% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
Why now
Insurance - Property & Casualty · market cap $1.6b. Down 24% from 52-week high of $19.44 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +34% — in hypergrowth territory. 7 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $16.29 (implying +11% upside).
Moat
ROE 65% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. Financial moat — scale of deposit base / underwriting franchise plus regulatory capital advantages. The largest players compound book value through cycles that erase smaller competitors.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -3.7%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Beta 3.12 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Balance-sheet financial — book value, net interest margin, and credit loss provisions are the lever points; a rates regime change or a deterioration in the loan book moves the stock more than EPS does.
Horizon
1-3 yr $16.29 (7-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $28.48 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $72.23 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

Not enough history yet — the model records PRCH's score after each daily run, and the chart appears once a few days have accumulated.

Shares to buy
136
Position size
$1,999
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$11.02
25% below $14.70
$ at risk if stopped
$499.80
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Porch Group, Inc. (PRCH): score, valuation & FAQ

Porch Group, Inc. (PRCH) is a Insurance - Property & Casualty company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A) and ROE (A). On valuation, PRCH sits about 24% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 8% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is PRCH a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades PRCH on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. That is driven by Rev (A) and ROE (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Porch Group, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade PRCH?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, PRCH isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage, where it rates strongest on Rev (A) and ROE (A).

Is PRCH overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $14.70, PRCH sits about 24% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 8% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a n/m× P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in PRCH?

Currently unprofitable (margin -3.7%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Beta 3.12 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Balance-sheet financial — book value, net interest margin, and credit loss provisions are the lever points; a rates regime change or a deterioration in the loan book moves the stock more than EPS does.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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