1Y Target$50.83Near-term target
5Y Target$71.18Compound horizon
10Y Target$104.64Long-dated conviction
FCF$63mTTM · 03/26C-FCF $63m — barely positive; fragile cash position · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+15.5%TTM YoYB+Revenue +15.5% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E0.23totalA-D/E 0.23 — conservative leverage, strong balance sheet · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/E19.2xBP/E 19.2 — moderate premium, defensible with growth
PEG1.24proxyBPEG 1.24 — acceptable premium for growth · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Machinery · market cap $1.0b. 16% off the 52-week high of $52.33. Revenue growing +15%, comfortably above the S&P median.
Moat
ROE 19% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $50.83 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $71.18 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $104.64 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
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