★
PGR
Progressive Corp · Insurance
FCF——
Rev+13.9%B+
D/E0.23A-
P/E10.1xA-
PEG0.73A-
83Score
$199.511Y Target$215.47Near-term target
5Y Target$266.99Compound horizon
10Y Target$340.79Long-dated conviction
FCF—TTM—
FCF not applicable for this sector (bank / insurer / REIT) or data unavailable
Rev+13.9%TTM YoYB+
Revenue +13.9% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E0.23totalA-
D/E 0.23 — conservative leverage, strong balance sheet · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/E10.1xA-
P/E 10.1 — cheap relative to market and most sectors
PEG0.73proxyA-
PEG 0.73 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Insurance · market cap $116.6b. Down 31% from 52-week high of $289.96 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +14%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.73 — paying under fair value for the growth rate.
Moat
Net margin 13% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 35% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. $116.6b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Down 31% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Regulatory capital risk — stricter capital requirements (CCAR, Basel) can force a dividend cut or a capital raise; the largest banks are most exposed because they're held to the tightest standards.
Horizon
1-3 yr $215.47 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $266.99 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $340.79 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Position sizing · PGR
Shares to buy
10
Position size
$1,995
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$149.63
25% below $199.51
$ at risk
$500.00
1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.