Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) stock analysis
Oil & Gas Integrated. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
PBR
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras · Oil & Gas Integrated
55.6Score
$25.30Oct 9 close$163.0B
1Y Target$23.31Analyst consensus · 14 analysts
5Y Target$29.42Compound horizon
10Y Target$37.74Long-dated conviction
FCF$4.0bTTM · 06/26B
FCF $4.0b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev-2.4%FY YoYD+
Revenue -2.4% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.76C+
D/E 0.76 — above the Energy debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E6.4xA
P/E 6.4 — cheapest decile in Energy (≈10th pctile)
PEG6.01D
PEG 6.01 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 55.6
Quality76.6
Growth42.6
Value72.3
Why this score
Cut its dividend
Foreign reporter (BRL)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
1% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value215% aboveest. fair value ~$8
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 30% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~-2% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Oil & Gas Integrated · market cap $163.0b. Trading near 52-week high of $25.60 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. 14 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $23.31 (implying -8% upside).
Moat
Net margin 24% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 30% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. $163.0b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Trading within 1% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Jurisdictional + permitting risk — mining and extraction operations concentrate exposure to political stability, royalty regimes, and environmental review timelines that can stall production for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $23.31 (14-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $29.42 at ~3% CAGR — dividend compounding plus earnings growth. 10 yr $37.74 if the moat survives secular pressure.
PBR vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
PBR
Book avg
Diff
Quality
77
83
-6
Growth
43
89
-46
Value
72
76
-4
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · PBR
Trend
+26.1 over 82 daily scores
From 29.5 (Jun 22) → 55.6 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
PBR at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+3.8%
90-day change
+0.6%
Forward EPS estimate
$4.14
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect PBR to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · PBR
$
%
%
Shares to buy
79
Position size
$1,999
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$18.98
25% below $25.30
$ at risk if stopped
$499.68
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR): score, valuation & FAQ
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is an Oil & Gas Integrated company that scores 55.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A), while Rev (D+) and PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, PBR sits about 215% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 30% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.
Is PBR a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores PBR 55.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does PBR score 55.6 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 76.6 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 42.6 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. PBR earns its highest marks on P/E (A), and is held back by Rev (D+) and PEG (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so PBR is measured against Oil & Gas Integrated peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is PBR overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $25.30, PBR sits about 215% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 30% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 6.4x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in PBR?
Trading within 1% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Jurisdictional + permitting risk — mining and extraction operations concentrate exposure to political stability, royalty regimes, and environmental review timelines that can stall production for years.