★
OMDA
Omada Health Inc · Health Care
FCF$17mC-
Rev——
D/E0.00A
P/S3.8xB
PEG——
68Score
$17.981Y Target$24.27Near-term target
5Y Target$36.16Compound horizon
10Y Target$94.10Long-dated conviction
FCF$17mFY2025C-
FCF $17m — barely positive; fragile cash position · From reported FY2025 10-K (OCF − CapEx); TTM not fully reconstructable from free tier.
Rev—TTM YoY—
Revenue growth data unavailable or not applicable — neutral default · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E0.00totalA
D/E 0.00 — essentially debt-free, pristine balance sheet · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/S3.8xB
P/S 3.8x — in line with software/tech peers
PEG—proxy—
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Health Care · market cap $1.1b. Down 37% from 52-week high of $28.40 — deep drawdown territory.
Moat
Speculative bucket — the moat thesis is forward-looking; without proven margin structure or capital efficiency yet, the durability argument is about IP / network effects / first-mover position that the company hasn't fully monetized.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -2.2%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Down 37% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 2.23 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $24.27 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $36.16 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $94.10 — return distribution heavily skewed.
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Position sizing · OMDA
Shares to buy
111
Position size
$1,996
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$13.48
25% below $17.98
$ at risk
$500.00
1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.