★
NSP
Insperity Inc · Professional Services
FCF$67mC-
Rev+3.0%C+
D/E8.02F
P/S0.2xA
PEG——
60Score
$31.681Y Target$42.77Near-term target
5Y Target$63.72Compound horizon
10Y Target$165.81Long-dated conviction
FCF$67mTTM · 03/26C-
FCF $67m — barely positive; fragile cash position · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+3.0%TTM YoYC+
Revenue +3.0% — steady but below market-beating range · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E8.02totalF
D/E 8.02 — extreme leverage (may reflect buyback-driven equity depletion; verify FCF strength) · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/S0.2xA
P/S 0.2x — deep value on sales
PEG—proxy—
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Professional Services · market cap $1.2b. Down 53% from 52-week high of $67.81 — deep drawdown territory.
Moat
Speculative bucket — the moat thesis is forward-looking; without proven margin structure or capital efficiency yet, the durability argument is about IP / network effects / first-mover position that the company hasn't fully monetized.
Risk
D/E 8.02 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Currently unprofitable (margin -0.4%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Down 53% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $42.77 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $63.72 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $165.81 — return distribution heavily skewed.
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Position sizing · NSP
Shares to buy
63
Position size
$1,996
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$23.76
25% below $31.68
$ at risk
$500.00
1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.