★
NRGV
Energy Vault Holdings Inc · Electrical Equipment
FCF-$98mF
Rev+362.0%A
D/E1.40C+
P/S4.8xB
PEG——
61Score
$5.861Y Target$7.91Near-term target
5Y Target$11.79Compound horizon
10Y Target$30.67Long-dated conviction
FCF-$98mTTM · 03/26F
FCF is negative (-$98m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+362.0%TTM YoYA
Revenue +362.0% — hypergrowth, top decile · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E1.40totalC+
D/E 1.40 — moderately levered, watch interest coverage · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/S4.8xB
P/S 4.8x — in line with software/tech peers
PEG—proxy—
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
8% off the 12-month high
Why now
Electrical Equipment · market cap $1.0b. 8% off the 52-week high of $6.40. Revenue growing +362% — in hypergrowth territory.
Moat
Speculative bucket — the moat thesis is forward-looking; without proven margin structure or capital efficiency yet, the durability argument is about IP / network effects / first-mover position that the company hasn't fully monetized.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$98m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Currently unprofitable (margin -53.0%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. ROE -171% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $7.91 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $11.79 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $30.67 — return distribution heavily skewed.
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Position sizing · NRGV
Shares to buy
341
Position size
$1,998
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$4.40
25% below $5.86
$ at risk
$500.00
1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.