1Y Target$15.01Near-term target
5Y Target$18.60Compound horizon
10Y Target$23.74Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.2bTTM · 12/25C+FCF $1.2b — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 12/25).
Rev+9.2%TTM YoYBRevenue +9.2% — at or above S&P median · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E0.31totalB+D/E 0.31 — healthy leverage, well below danger zone · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/E1.8xAP/E 1.8 — deep value; well below S&P median (~20x)
PEG0.20proxyAPEG 0.20 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Road & Rail · market cap $5.3b. Down 46% from 52-week high of $25.54 — deep drawdown territory. PEG 0.20 — paying under fair value for the growth rate.
Moat
Net margin 44% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 150% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
Down 46% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.82 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $15.01 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $18.60 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $23.74 if the moat survives secular pressure.
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