Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

LW analysis

Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.Packaged Foods. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

LW
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. · Packaged Foods
FCF$540mC+
Rev+2.5%C
D/E2.21C
P/E25.8xC+
PEG0.88B+
60.1Score
$53.68$7.4B
1Y Target$55.25Analyst consensus · 12 analysts
5Y Target$69.75Compound horizon
10Y Target$89.45Long-dated conviction
FCF$540mTTM
C+
FCF $540m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+2.5%TTM YoY
C
Revenue +2.5% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present
D/E2.21
C
D/E 2.21 — more levered than most Consumer Defensive peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E25.8x
C+
P/E 25.8 — above the Consumer Defensive median (≈75th pctile)
PEG0.88
B+
PEG 0.88 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 60.1
Quality65.0
Growth57.6
Value57.9
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
20% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value23% belowest. fair value ~$69
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~1% a year for the next decade — vs the ~11% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability18% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC10.2% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Packaged Foods · market cap $7.4b. 20% off the 52-week high of $67.07. PEG 0.88 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 12 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $55.25 (implying +3% upside).
Moat
ROE 16% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 186% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
D/E 2.21 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Net margin 4.4% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $55.25 (12-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $69.75 at ~5% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $89.45 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

LW vs the Top Picks average

PillarLWBook avgDiff
Quality0.650.84-0.19
Growth0.580.84-0.26
Value0.580.78-0.20

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+1.7 over 47 daily scores
From 58.4 (Jun 22) → 60.1 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+12.6%
90-day change+13.1%
Forward EPS estimate$3.39

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect LW to earn is materially higher (+13.1%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
37
Position size
$1,986
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$40.26
25% below $53.68
$ at risk if stopped
$496.54
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW): score, valuation & FAQ

Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) is a Packaged Foods company that scores 60.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (B+). On valuation, LW sits about 23% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 1% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is LW a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores LW 60.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does LW score 60.1 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). LW earns its highest marks on PEG (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is LW overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $53.68, LW sits about 23% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 1% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 25.8x P/E (graded C+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in LW?

D/E 2.21 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Net margin 4.4% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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