★
LPX
Louisiana-Pacific Corp · Paper & Forest
FCF-$8mF
Rev-13.0%D
D/E0.20A-
P/S2.0xA-
PEG——
63Score
$73.501Y Target$99.23Near-term target
5Y Target$147.83Compound horizon
10Y Target$384.69Long-dated conviction
FCF-$8mTTM · 03/26F
FCF is negative (-$8m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev-13.0%TTM YoYD
Revenue -13.0% — meaningful contraction · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E0.20totalA-
D/E 0.20 — conservative leverage, strong balance sheet · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/S2.0xA-
P/S 2.0x — cheap for any tech/growth name
PEG—proxy—
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Paper & Forest · market cap $5.1b. Down 29% from 52-week high of $102.86 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue -13% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating.
Moat
Speculative bucket — the moat thesis is forward-looking; without proven margin structure or capital efficiency yet, the durability argument is about IP / network effects / first-mover position that the company hasn't fully monetized.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$8m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Trailing P/E 62.6x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Revenue contracting -13% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line.
Horizon
1-3 yr $99.23 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $147.83 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $384.69 — return distribution heavily skewed.
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Position sizing · LPX
Shares to buy
27
Position size
$1,985
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$55.13
25% below $73.50
$ at risk
$500.00
1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.