Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

LPX analysis

Louisiana-Pacific CorporationBuilding Products & Equipment. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

LPX
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation · Building Products & Equipment
FCF-$21mF
Rev-14.3%D
D/E0.22A-
P/S2.1xB
PEG3.68D
15.9Score
$73.18$5.1B
1Y Target$92.23Analyst consensus · 13 analysts
5Y Target$161.31Compound horizon
10Y Target$288.30Long-dated conviction
FCF-$21mTTM
F
FCF is negative (-$21m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names
Rev-14.3%TTM YoY
D
Revenue -14.3% — meaningful contraction
D/E0.22
A-
D/E 0.22 — less debt than most Industrials peers (≈25th pctile)
P/S2.1x
B
P/S 2.1x — near the Industrials median (≈60th pctile)
PEG3.68
D
PEG 3.68 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 15.9
Quality47.9
Growth14.1
Value5.9
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
28% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability17% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC2.8% · Creturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Building Products & Equipment · market cap $5.1b. Down 28% from 52-week high of $101.28 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue -14% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating. 13 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $92.23 (implying +26% upside).
Moat
Higher-variance name — the moat signals on the quantitative card are modest, so the durability case rests on execution (turning current growth into durable earnings power) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than an entrenched competitive position.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$21m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Trailing P/E 95.0x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Revenue contracting -14% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line.
Horizon
1-3 yr $92.23 (13-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $161.31 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $288.30 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

LPX vs the Top Picks average

PillarLPXBook avgDiff
Quality0.480.84-0.36
Growth0.140.84-0.70
Value0.060.78-0.72

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-3.6 over 47 daily scores
From 19.5 (Jun 22) → 15.9 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-15.1%
90-day change-21.2%
Forward EPS estimate$3.03

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect LPX to earn is materially lower (-21.2%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
27
Position size
$1,976
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$54.89
25% below $73.18
$ at risk if stopped
$493.97
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX): score, valuation & FAQ

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) is a Building Products & Equipment company that scores 15.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-), while PEG (D) and FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is LPX a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores LPX 15.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by D/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Louisiana-Pacific Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does LPX score 15.9 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). LPX earns its highest marks on D/E (A-), and is held back by PEG (D) and FCF (F). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is LPX overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for LPX — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in LPX?

Free cash flow is negative (-$21m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Trailing P/E 95.0x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Revenue contracting -14% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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