★
INNV
InnovAge Holding Corp · Health Care
FCF$49mC-
Rev+15.0%B+
D/E0.25A-
P/S1.1xA-
PEG——
72Score
$7.431Y Target$10.03Near-term target
5Y Target$14.94Compound horizon
10Y Target$38.89Long-dated conviction
FCF$49mTTM · 12/25C-
FCF $49m — barely positive; fragile cash position · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 12/25).
Rev+15.0%TTM YoYB+
Revenue +15.0% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E0.25totalA-
D/E 0.25 — conservative leverage, strong balance sheet · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/S1.1xA-
P/S 1.1x — cheap for any tech/growth name
PEG—proxy—
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Health Care · market cap $998m. Down 30% from 52-week high of $10.69 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +15%, comfortably above the S&P median.
Moat
Speculative bucket — the moat thesis is forward-looking; without proven margin structure or capital efficiency yet, the durability argument is about IP / network effects / first-mover position that the company hasn't fully monetized.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -1.2%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Down 30% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. ROE -5% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $10.03 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $14.94 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $38.89 — return distribution heavily skewed.
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Position sizing · INNV
Shares to buy
269
Position size
$1,999
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$5.57
25% below $7.43
$ at risk
$500.00
1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.