The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company — Auto Parts. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
GT
The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company · Auto Parts
FCF$192mC
Rev-4.3%D+
D/E2.74C
P/S0.1xA
PEG0.43A
39.9Score
$6.15$1.8B
1Y Target$7.46Analyst consensus · 7 analysts
5Y Target$13.04Compound horizon
10Y Target$23.31Long-dated conviction
FCF$192mTTMC
FCF $192m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev-4.3%TTM YoYD+
Revenue -4.3% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse
D/E2.74C
D/E 2.74 — more levered than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈90th pctile)
P/S0.1xA
P/S 0.1x — cheapest decile in Consumer Cyclical (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.43A
PEG 0.43 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 39.9
Quality48.4
Growth14.1
Value92.8
Why this score
Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
42% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value57% belowest. fair value ~$14
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-6% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability17% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC16.1% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted
Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.
Why now
Goodyear is a free-cash-flow machine with $192m in TTM cash generation against a $1.8b market cap, implying a 10.7% FCF yield that the market is ignoring because of headline losses. The company’s retread truck and aviation tire segments (named in the BUSINESS DESCRIPTION) are structural tailwinds: retreading extends tire life by 2-3x at 30-50% of the cost of new tires, locking in repeat customers in commercial fleets and airlines where downtime is unacceptable. The PEG ratio of 0.43 says the market prices in zero growth, but our model’s Value pillar (93/100) suggests the cheapness is the setup, not the endpoint. The crux is whether the FCF yield is sustainable as the core consumer tire business stabilizes.
Moat
Goodyear’s moat is built on installed-base switching costs in retread truck tires and aviation tires, where fleet operators and airlines cannot risk unplanned downtime. The retread segment (named in the BUSINESS DESCRIPTION) requires proprietary tread designs and curing equipment that competitors like Bridgestone or Michelin cannot replicate overnight, creating a de facto oligopoly in a niche with high customer retention. The company’s multi-brand portfolio (Goodyear, Cooper, Kelly, Mastercraft, etc.) further locks in consumers across price points, from premium to private-label, making it hard for a single competitor to displace the ecosystem.
Risk
The bear case is simple: Goodyear’s debt-to-equity of 2.74 and -14.4% profit margin mean the company is one industry downturn away from covenant breaches or dilution. The commercial tire market is cyclical, and retread demand falls when new tire prices drop, as seen in 2023-24 when raw material costs eased. The signal that would break the bull thesis is a debt-to-equity spike above 3.0 combined with a second consecutive year of negative revenue growth — a clear sign the retread and aviation segments can’t offset the core business’s decline.
Horizon
1-3 yr $7.46 (7-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $13.04 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $23.31 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
GT vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
GT
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.48
0.83
-0.35
Growth
0.14
0.87
-0.73
Value
0.93
0.76
+0.17
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.6). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · GT
Trend
-6.4 over 49 daily scores
From 46.3 (Jun 22) → 39.9 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
GT at a glance
Every figure here comes from the same audited fundamentals behind the score. Charts drawn from data the score does not use say so on the card.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
-13.4%
90-day change
-17.8%
Forward EPS estimate
$0.56
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect GT to earn is materially lower (-17.8%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.
A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →
Position sizing · GT
$
%
%
Shares to buy
325
Position size
$1,999
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$4.61
25% below $6.15
$ at risk if stopped
$499.69
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT): score, valuation & FAQ
The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT) is a Auto Parts company that scores 39.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are P/S (A) and PEG (A), while Rev (D+) rate weaker. On valuation, GT sits about 57% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -6% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is GT a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores GT 39.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by P/S (A) and PEG (A). A score is a quantitative screen of The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does GT score 39.9 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on value at 92.8 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 14.1 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. GT earns its highest marks on P/S (A) and PEG (A), and is held back by Rev (D+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so GT is measured against Auto Parts peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is GT overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $6.15, GT sits about 57% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -6% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in GT?
The bear case is simple: Goodyear’s debt-to-equity of 2.74 and -14.4% profit margin mean the company is one industry downturn away from covenant breaches or dilution. The commercial tire market is cyclical, and retread demand falls when new tire prices drop, as seen in 2023-24 when raw material costs eased. The signal that would break the bull thesis is a debt-to-equity spike above 3.0 combined with a second consecutive year of negative revenue growth — a clear sign the retread and aviation segments can’t offset the core business’s decline.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.