Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

GSHD analysis

Goosehead Insurance IncInsurance. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

GSHD
Goosehead Insurance Inc · Insurance
FCF
Rev+17.6%B+
D/E2.10D+
P/E48.9xC
PEG2.78C
71Score
$40.00
1Y Target$46.00Near-term target
5Y Target$64.42Compound horizon
10Y Target$94.69Long-dated conviction
FCFTTM
FCF not applicable for this sector (bank / insurer / REIT) or data unavailable
Rev+17.6%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +17.6% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E2.10
D+
D/E 2.10 — high leverage, material refinancing risk
P/E48.9x
C
P/E 48.9 — rich valuation; execution risk material
PEG2.78proxy
C
PEG 2.78 — expensive relative to growth rate · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Insurance · market cap $1.4b. Down 65% from 52-week high of $113.00 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +18%, comfortably above the S&P median.
Moat
ROE 58% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. Financial moat — scale of deposit base / underwriting franchise plus regulatory capital advantages. The largest players compound book value through cycles that erase smaller competitors.
Risk
D/E 2.10 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Down 65% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.57 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $46.00 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $64.42 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $94.69 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Shares to buy
50
Position size
$2,000
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$30.00
25% below $40.00
$ at risk
$500.00
1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

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