Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN) stock analysis
Medical Care Facilities. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
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GRDN
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. · Medical Care Facilities
69.8Score
$41.28Oct 9 close$2.6B
1Y Target$49.86Analyst consensus · 7 analysts
5Y Target$73.00Compound horizon
10Y Target$108.28Long-dated conviction
FCF$80mTTM · 06/26C-
FCF $80m — barely positive; fragile cash position · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+17.9%FY YoYB+
Revenue +17.9% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.15B+
D/E 0.15 — below the Healthcare debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E40.5xC
P/E 40.5 — expensive vs Healthcare peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG3.93est.D
PEG 3.93 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios · PEG derived: P/E ÷ analysts' expected EPS growth for next year, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. When earnings are expected to dip this year, the growth used is the yearly average over this year and next, so a recovery isn't counted as growth.
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 69.8
Quality81.0
Growth87.2
Value48.1
Why this score
Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
15% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value76% aboveest. fair value ~$23
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 24% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~14% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Medical Care Facilities · market cap $2.6b. 15% off the 52-week high of $48.33. Revenue growing +18%, comfortably above the S&P median. 7 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $49.86 (implying +21% upside).
Moat
ROE 30% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 121% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Trailing P/E 40x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. Net margin 4.5% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $49.86 (7-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $73.00 at ~12% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $108.28 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
GRDN vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
GRDN
Book avg
Diff
Quality
81
83
-2
Growth
87
89
-2
Value
48
76
-28
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · GRDN
Trend
+12.4 over 82 daily scores
From 57.4 (Jun 22) → 69.8 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
GRDN at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+0.3%
90-day change
+5.6%
Forward EPS estimate
$1.43
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect GRDN to earn is materially higher (+5.6%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · GRDN
$
%
%
Shares to buy
48
Position size
$1,981
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$30.96
25% below $41.28
$ at risk if stopped
$495.36
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN): score, valuation & FAQ
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN) is a Medical Care Facilities company that scores 69.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are Rev (B+) and D/E (B+), while FCF (C-) and PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, GRDN sits about 76% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 24% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.
Is GRDN a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores GRDN 69.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (B+) and D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does GRDN score 69.8 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on growth at 87.2 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 48.1 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. GRDN earns its highest marks on Rev (B+) and D/E (B+), and is held back by FCF (C-) and PEG (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so GRDN is measured against Medical Care Facilities peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is GRDN overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $41.28, GRDN sits about 76% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 24% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 40.5x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in GRDN?
Trailing P/E 40x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. Net margin 4.5% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.