1Y Target$49.66Near-term target
5Y Target$69.54Compound horizon
10Y Target$102.22Long-dated conviction
FCF$121mTTM · 03/26CFCF $121m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+13.0%TTM YoYB+Revenue +13.0% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E0.61totalBD/E 0.61 — at market average, manageable · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/E66.8xD+P/E 66.8 — expensive; prices in flawless execution
PEG5.13proxyDPEG 5.13 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Chemicals · market cap $10.4b. 5% off the 52-week high of $45.52. Revenue growing +13%, comfortably above the S&P median.
Moat
Moat signals from the quantitative card are modest — profitability and capital efficiency are middle-of-pack. The thesis here depends on softer factors (switching costs, brand, distribution, regulatory protection) not captured by the 7-grade screen.
Risk
Trailing P/E 66.8x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. ROE 6% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $49.66 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $69.54 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $102.22 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
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