1Y Target$94.50Near-term target
5Y Target$140.80Compound horizon
10Y Target$366.37Long-dated conviction
FCF-$1.3bTTM · 06/22FFCF is negative (-$1.3b) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 06/22).
Rev+23.4%TTM YoYA-Revenue +23.4% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%) · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E1.15totalC+D/E 1.15 — moderately levered, watch interest coverage · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/S1.9xA-P/S 1.9x — cheap for any tech/growth name
PEG0.64proxyA-PEG 0.64 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Utilities · market cap $26.3b. 8% off the 52-week high of $76.41. Revenue growing +23%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.64 — paying under fair value for the growth rate.
Moat
Net margin 13% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 11% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$1.3b) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk.
Horizon
1-3 yr $94.50 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $140.80 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $366.37 — return distribution heavily skewed.
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