★
ERIE
Erie Indemnity Co · Insurance
FCF——
Rev+4.8%C+
D/E0.00A
P/E18.3xB
PEG3.84D
74Score
$224.231Y Target$257.86Near-term target
5Y Target$361.12Compound horizon
10Y Target$530.83Long-dated conviction
FCF—TTM—
FCF not applicable for this sector (bank / insurer / REIT) or data unavailable
Rev+4.8%TTM YoYC+
Revenue +4.8% — steady but below market-beating range · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E0.00A
D/E 0.00 — essentially debt-free, pristine balance sheet
P/E18.3xB
P/E 18.3 — moderate premium, defensible with growth
PEG3.84proxyD
PEG 3.84 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Insurance · market cap $10.4b. Down 41% from 52-week high of $380.67 — deep drawdown territory.
Moat
Net margin 14% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 25% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. Financial moat — scale of deposit base / underwriting franchise plus regulatory capital advantages. The largest players compound book value through cycles that erase smaller competitors.
Risk
Down 41% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Balance-sheet financial — book value, net interest margin, and credit loss provisions are the lever points; a rates regime change or a deterioration in the loan book moves the stock more than EPS does.
Horizon
1-3 yr $257.86 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $361.12 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $530.83 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Position sizing · ERIE
Shares to buy
8
Position size
$1,794
3.6% of portfolio
Stop price
$168.17
25% below $224.23
$ at risk
$500.00
1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.