1Y Target$14.19Near-term target
5Y Target$25.26Compound horizon
10Y Target$65.74Long-dated conviction
FCF——FCF not applicable for this sector (bank / insurer / REIT) or data unavailable
Rev+11.2%TTM YoYBRevenue +11.2% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.46B+D/E 0.46 — healthy leverage, well below danger zone
P/S1.1xA-P/S 1.1x — cheap for any tech/growth name
PEG0.39APEG 0.39 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth
Why now
Building Materials · market cap $18.1b. 8% off the 52-week high of $13.67. Revenue growing +11%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.39 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 16 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $14.19 (implying +13% upside).
Moat
Mining moat is reserve quality + extraction cost per unit — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the commodity cycle while marginal producers burn it.
Risk
Net margin 2.7% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. ROE 4% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate. Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.
Horizon
1-3 yr $14.19 (16-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $25.26 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $65.74 — return distribution heavily skewed.
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