1Y Target$224.80Near-term target
5Y Target$334.93Compound horizon
10Y Target$871.54Long-dated conviction
FCF$3.1bTTM · 03/26BFCF $3.1b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+0.7%TTM YoYCRevenue +0.7% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E——D/E data unavailable — neutral default
P/S0.5xAP/S 0.5x — deep value on sales
PEG—proxy—PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Road & Rail · market cap $5.9b. Down 80% from 52-week high of $847.70 — deep drawdown territory.
Moat
ROE 433% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -5.7%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Down 80% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.87 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $224.80 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $334.93 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $871.54 — return distribution heavily skewed.
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