1Y Target$33.70Near-term target
5Y Target$50.20Compound horizon
10Y Target$130.64Long-dated conviction
FCF-$19mFY2011FFCF is negative (-$19m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names · From reported FY2011 10-K (OCF − CapEx); TTM not fully reconstructable from free tier.
Rev+16.9%TTM YoYB+Revenue +16.9% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.70BD/E 0.70 — at market average, manageable
P/S1.9xA-P/S 1.9x — cheap for any tech/growth name
PEG0.83proxyB+PEG 0.83 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0) · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Transportation Infrastructure · market cap $4.1b. 18% off the 52-week high of $30.50. Revenue growing +17%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.83 — paying under fair value for the growth rate.
Moat
Net margin 14% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 18% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$19m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk.
Horizon
1-3 yr $33.70 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $50.20 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $130.64 — return distribution heavily skewed.
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