1Y Target$50.40Near-term target
5Y Target$54.50Compound horizon
10Y Target$80.11Long-dated conviction
FCF$326mTTM · 03/26CFCF $326m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+47.5%TTM YoYARevenue +47.5% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.37B+D/E 0.37 — healthy leverage, well below danger zone
P/E17.4xB+P/E 17.4 — at or below S&P median, reasonable
PEG——PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable
Why now
Lodging · market cap $4.7b. Down 22% from 52-week high of $43.17 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +48% — in hypergrowth territory. 16 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $50.40 (implying +49% upside).
Moat
Net margin 17% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 53% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 120% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $50.40 (16-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $54.50 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $80.11 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
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