1Y Target$23.83Near-term target
5Y Target$33.37Compound horizon
10Y Target$49.05Long-dated conviction
FCF$960mTTM · 03/26C+FCF $960m — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev-14.3%TTM YoYDRevenue -14.3% — meaningful contraction · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E0.62totalBD/E 0.62 — at market average, manageable · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/E24.2xBP/E 24.2 — moderate premium, defensible with growth
PEG—proxy—PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Retail · market cap $986m. 5% off the 52-week high of $21.72. Revenue -14% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating.
Moat
Moat signals from the quantitative card are modest — profitability and capital efficiency are middle-of-pack. The thesis here depends on softer factors (switching costs, brand, distribution, regulatory protection) not captured by the 7-grade screen.
Risk
Revenue contracting -14% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Net margin 0.6% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $23.83 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $33.37 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $49.05 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
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