1Y Target$121.87Near-term target
5Y Target$151.01Compound horizon
10Y Target$192.75Long-dated conviction
FCF$546mTTM · 03/26C+FCF $546m — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev-3.8%TTM YoYD+Revenue -3.8% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E0.57totalB+D/E 0.57 — healthy leverage, well below danger zone · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/E10.6xA-P/E 10.6 — cheap relative to market and most sectors
PEG—proxy—PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Machinery · market cap $8.2b. Down 22% from 52-week high of $143.78 — deep drawdown territory.
Moat
ROE 18% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $121.87 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $151.01 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $192.75 if the moat survives secular pressure.
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