Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

ABR analysis

Arbor Realty Trust IncReal Estate. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

ABR
Arbor Realty Trust Inc · Real Estate
FCF
Rev-10.6%D
D/E3.74D
P/E9.0xA-
PEG
64Score
$5.57
1Y Target$6.02Near-term target
5Y Target$7.45Compound horizon
10Y Target$9.51Long-dated conviction
FCFTTM
FCF not applicable for this sector (bank / insurer / REIT) or data unavailable
Rev-10.6%TTM YoY
D
Revenue -10.6% — meaningful contraction
D/E3.74
D
D/E 3.74 — very high leverage
P/E9.0x
A-
P/E 9.0 — cheap relative to market and most sectors
PEGproxy
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Real Estate · market cap $1.1b. Down 56% from 52-week high of $12.58 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue -11% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating.
Moat
Moat signals from the quantitative card are modest — profitability and capital efficiency are middle-of-pack. The thesis here depends on softer factors (switching costs, brand, distribution, regulatory protection) not captured by the 7-grade screen.
Risk
D/E 3.74 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Revenue contracting -11% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Down 56% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $6.02 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $7.45 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $9.51 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Shares to buy
359
Position size
$2,000
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$4.18
25% below $5.57
$ at risk
$500.00
1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

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