COMPARE · Data as of August 24, 2026
MTH vs TOL
Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. MTH scored 53.1, TOL scored 82.0 — TOL leads.
Compare another set
MTH
Meritage Homes Corporation
53.1
$72.52 · $4.7B
fundamentals as of
Score gap
28.9
TOL leads
TOL
Toll Brothers, Inc.
82
$147.21
fundamentals as of
At a glance · who leads each dimension, on the model's own rules
- CheapestTOL11.9x
- Fastest growthTOL+3.6%
- Strongest balance sheetTOL0.32
- Highest qualityMTH56 / 100
- Largest discount to fair valueMTH-33%
Side by side · every name on one set of axes
Growth against the P/E multiple. Up and to the right is cheaper and faster — the quality-growth idea in one picture. Points beyond the axis are pinned to the edge and marked off-scale rather than allowed to compress everything else.
Fundamentals, head-to-head
MTH
TOL
$415mC
FCF
$1.2bC+
-8.3%D
Rev
+3.6%C+
0.38A-
D/E
0.32A-
15.1xA-
P/E
11.9xA-
0.54A-
PEG
0.99B+
Winner per row is the stronger grade; where grades tie, the better figure breaks it. A true tie or a missing value shows no highlight.
Valuation · DCF cross-check
MTH
TOL
33% below
Price vs fair valuelower is cheaper
—
~3%/yr
Growth the price implies10-yr FCF · lower = less priced in
—
+19%
1-yr DCF upside
—
+50%
5-yr DCF upside
—
+109%
10-yr DCF upside
—
The DCF is a cross-check on intrinsic value, separate from the quality-growth score above.
Model signals
MTH
Why this score
- Buying back stock
- Raising its dividend
- Revenue shrinking
TOL
No notable signals flagged.
The companies
MTHMeritage Homes Corporation
Why now
Residential Construction · market cap $4.7b. 15% off the 52-week high of $85.38. Revenue -8% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating. PEG 0.54 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 8 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $82.38 (implying +14% upside).
Moat
FCF converts 126% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Revenue contracting -8% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. ROE 7% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
TOLToll Brothers, Inc.
Why now
Residential Construction · market cap n/a. 13% off the 52-week high of $168.36. PEG 0.99 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 15 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $170.80 (implying +16% upside).
Moat
ROE 15% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Verdict — model-derived comparison
TOL leads MTH by 6.7 points (59.8 to 53.1), its sharpest advantage coming in Rev (grade C+). A contrarian could still prefer MTH, which trades about 33% below our DCF fair value — a margin of safety the score doesn't reward.
Our AI analyst is busy right now, so this verdict is drawn directly from the pillars, grades and DCF above.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.