COMPARE · Reviewed July 29, 2026
PARR vs UGP
Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. PARR scored 62.9, UGP scored 50.0 — PARR leads.
Compare another set
PARR
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.
62.9
$85.83 · $4.3B
fundamentals as of
Score gap
12.9
PARR leads
UGP
Ultrapar Participacoes SA
50
$6.45 · $34.9B
The model, pillar by pillar (0–100 each)
PARR
stronger →← stronger
UGP
71
Qualityreturns · margins · balance sheet
52
50
Growthrevenue & earnings expansion
61
70
Valuevaluation vs sector peers
39
PARR is stronger on 2 of 3 pillars.
Fundamentals, head-to-head
PARR
UGP
$255mC
FCF
—
-2.5%D+
Rev
+6.9%C+
0.87C+
D/E
1.39C+
9.7xA-
P/E
11.7xA-
—
PEG
1.71C+
Winner per row is the stronger grade in our model; a tie or a missing value shows no highlight.
Valuation · DCF cross-check
PARR
UGP
19% above
Price vs fair valuelower is cheaper
—
~3%/yr
Growth the price implies10-yr FCF · lower = less priced in
—
-7%
1-yr DCF upside
—
-16%
5-yr DCF upside
—
-28%
10-yr DCF upside
—
The DCF is a cross-check on intrinsic value, separate from the quality-growth score above.
Model signals
PARR
Why this score
- Buying back stock
- Revenue shrinking
UGP
Why this score
- Raising its dividend
The companies
PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc.
Why now
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · market cap $4.3b. Trading near 52-week high of $86.34 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. 7 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $83.00 (implying -3% upside).
Moat
ROE 30% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
Trading within 1% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Jurisdictional + permitting risk — mining and extraction operations concentrate exposure to political stability, royalty regimes, and environmental review timelines that can stall production for years.
UGPUltrapar Participacoes SA
Why now
Retail · market cap $34.9b. Down 81% from 52-week high of $33.39 — deep drawdown territory.
Moat
ROE 19% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Down 81% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Net margin 2.1% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.