COMPARE · Data as of August 21, 2026
NRG vs VST
Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. NRG scored 60.9, VST scored 73.8 — VST leads.
Compare another set
NRG
NRG Energy, Inc.
60.9
$113.11 · $23.8B
fundamentals as of
Score gap
12.9
VST leads
VST
Vistra Corp.
73.8
$136.21 · $45.7B
fundamentals as of
At a glance · who leads each dimension, on the model's own rules
- CheapestVST23.0x
- Fastest growthVST+18.6%
- Strongest balance sheetVST3.73
- Highest qualityVST65 / 100
Side by side · every name on one set of axes
Growth against the P/E multiple. Up and to the right is cheaper and faster — the quality-growth idea in one picture. Points beyond the axis are pinned to the edge and marked off-scale rather than allowed to compress everything else.
The model, pillar by pillar (0–100 each)
NRG
stronger →← stronger
VST
45
Qualityreturns · margins · balance sheet
65
77
Growthrevenue & earnings expansion
88
65
Valuevaluation vs sector peers
70
VST is stronger on 3 of 3 pillars.
Fundamentals, head-to-head
NRG
VST
$348mC
FCF
$2.3bB
+12.4%B+
Rev
+18.6%B+
4.83D
D/E
3.73D
29.5xC
P/E
23.0xC+
0.58A-
PEG
0.41A
Winner per row is the stronger grade; where grades tie, the better figure breaks it. A true tie or a missing value shows no highlight.
Valuation · DCF cross-check
NRG
VST
239% above
Price vs fair valuelower is cheaper
17% above
~48%/yr
Growth the price implies10-yr FCF · lower = less priced in
~19%/yr
-77%
1-yr DCF upside
-34%
-70%
5-yr DCF upside
-14%
-56%
10-yr DCF upside
+25%
The DCF is a cross-check on intrinsic value, separate from the quality-growth score above.
Model signals
NRG
Why this score
- Raising its dividend
- Diluting shareholders
VST
No notable signals flagged.
The companies
NRGNRG Energy, Inc.
Why now
Utilities - Independent Power Producers · market cap $23.8b. Down 40% from 52-week high of $189.96 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +12%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.58 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 16 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $188.75 (implying +67% upside).
Moat
ROE 17% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
D/E 4.83 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Down 40% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Net margin 2.6% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
VSTVistra Corp.
Why now
Utilities - Independent Power Producers · market cap $45.7b. Down 38% from 52-week high of $219.82 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +19%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.41 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 18 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $219.72 (implying +61% upside).
Moat
ROE 40% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 102% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
D/E 3.73 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Down 38% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.43 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Where NRG and VST diverge
On the headline score the gap is 12.9 points in favor of VST. The widest single difference is Quality, where VST leads by 19.9 points.
- QualityNRG 44.9 · VST 64.8VST +19.9
- GrowthNRG 77.2 · VST 88.3VST +11.1
- ValueNRG 65.1 · VST 70.2VST +5.1
Pillars run 0–100 against sector peers, so a score is a statement about a company relative to its own industry rather than to the other name here. A wide Value gap usually means the market already prices the difference in quality or growth — which is the trade-off this comparison comes down to.