Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. MTH scored 30.7, TOL scored 51.0 — TOL leads.
Compare another set
MTH
Meritage Homes Corporation
Residential Construction · Quality-Growth
30.7
$58.81 · $3.8B
fundamentals as of
Score gap
20.3
TOL leads
TOL
Toll Brothers, Inc.
Residential Construction · Quality-Growth
51
$133.13 · $12.3B
fundamentals as of
At a glance · who leads each dimension, on the model's own rules
CheapestTOL10.7x
Fastest growthTOL-1.1%
Strongest balance sheetTOL0.34
Highest qualityTOL77 / 100
Largest discount to fair valueMTH-4%
Side by side · every name on one set of axes
Growth against the P/E multiple. Up and to the right is cheaper and faster — the quality-growth idea in one picture. Points beyond the axis are pinned to the edge and marked off-scale rather than allowed to compress everything else.
The model, pillar by pillar (0–100 each)
MTH
stronger →← stronger
TOL
62
Qualityreturns · margins · balance sheet
77
19
Growthrevenue & earnings expansion
26
25
Valuevaluation vs sector peers
65
TOL is stronger on 3 of 3 pillars.
Fundamentals, head-to-head
MTH
TOL
$415mC
FCF
$1.1bC+
-8.3%D
Rev
-1.1%D+
0.38A-
D/E
0.34A-
12.3xA-
P/E
10.7xA-
—
PEG
0.87B+
Winner per row is the stronger grade; where grades tie, the better figure breaks it. A true tie or a missing value shows no highlight.
Valuation · DCF cross-check
MTH
TOL
4% below
Price vs fair valuelower is cheaper
1% below
~-2%/yr
Growth the price impliesyr-1 FCF growth, fading to 4% · lower = less priced in
~2%/yr
+16%
1-yr DCF upside
+4%
+4%
5-yr DCF upside
+1%
-10%
10-yr DCF upside
-4%
The DCF is a cross-check on intrinsic value, separate from the quality-growth score above.
Model signals
MTH
Why this score
Buying back stock
Raising its dividend
TOL
Why this score
Buying back stock
Raising its dividend
Durable high returns
The companies
MTHMeritage Homes Corporation
Residential Construction · $58.81 · beta 1.34
Why now
Residential Construction · market cap $3.8b. Down 31% from 52-week high of $85.38 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue -8% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating. 9 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $77.56 (implying +32% upside).
Moat
FCF converts 126% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Revenue contracting -8% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Down 31% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. ROE 7% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
TOLToll Brothers, Inc.
Residential Construction · $133.13 · beta 1.30
Why now
Residential Construction · market cap $12.3b. Down 21% from 52-week high of $168.36 — deep drawdown territory. PEG 0.87 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 17 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $170.88 (implying +28% upside).
Moat
ROE 14% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Verdict — model-derived comparison
MTH leads TOL by 0.8 points (56.0 to 55.2), its sharpest advantage coming in PEG (grade A-). A contrarian could still prefer TOL, which trades about 11% below our DCF fair value — a margin of safety the score doesn't reward.
Our AI analyst is busy right now, so this verdict is drawn directly from the pillars, grades and DCF above.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Where MTH and TOL diverge
On the headline score the gap is 20.3 points in favor of TOL. The widest single difference is Value, where TOL leads by 40.2 points.
ValueMTH 24.8 · TOL 65.0TOL +40.2
QualityMTH 61.9 · TOL 76.8TOL +14.9
GrowthMTH 18.8 · TOL 26.5TOL +7.7
Pillars run 0–100. Value is judged against each company's own sector, so a Value score is a statement about a company relative to its own industry rather than to the other name here. A wide Value gap usually means the market already prices the difference in quality or growth — which is the trade-off this comparison comes down to.
Common questions
Is TOL or MTH the better stock?
TOL scores higher: TOL 51.0, MTH 30.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth score, which blends business quality, growth and valuation into one number. A higher score means a stronger business at a more reasonable price — it is not a price target or a recommendation.
Where do TOL and MTH differ most?
The widest gap is value, where TOL leads by 40 points on the 0–100 pillar scale. TOL leads all three pillars, so the gap is broad rather than a single-measure difference.
How are TOL and MTH scored?
Each carries the same 0–100 quality-growth score used everywhere on the site, built from three pillars — quality (profitability and returns on capital), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (what you pay for them) — combined as a geometric mean, so a weak pillar cannot be papered over by a strong one.
How current is this comparison?
The whole universe is re-scored every trading day after the US market close, so the scores and fundamentals here reflect the latest published edition.