COMPARE · Reviewed July 29, 2026
MTH vs TOL
Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. MTH scored 51.2, TOL scored 77.1 — TOL leads.
Compare another set
MTH
Meritage Homes Corporation
51.2
$70.83 · $4.7B
fundamentals as of
Score gap
25.9
TOL leads
TOL
Toll Brothers Inc
77.1
$150.23 · $14.1B
The model, pillar by pillar (0–100 each)
MTH
stronger →← stronger
TOL
55
Qualityreturns · margins · balance sheet
78
50
Growthrevenue & earnings expansion
84
49
Valuevaluation vs sector peers
70
TOL is stronger on 3 of 3 pillars.
Fundamentals, head-to-head
MTH
TOL
$238mC
FCF
$1.2bC+
-8.3%D
Rev
+17.7%B+
0.37A-
D/E
0.34B+
12.9xA-
P/E
11.1xA-
0.54A-
PEG
0.63A-
Winner per row is the stronger grade in our model; a tie or a missing value shows no highlight.
Valuation · DCF cross-check
MTH
TOL
9% above
Price vs fair valuelower is cheaper
27% below
~17%/yr
Growth the price implies10-yr FCF · lower = less priced in
~3%/yr
-30%
1-yr DCF upside
+14%
-9%
5-yr DCF upside
+36%
+33%
10-yr DCF upside
+76%
The DCF is a cross-check on intrinsic value, separate from the quality-growth score above.
Model signals
MTH
Why this score
- Buying back stock
- Raising its dividend
- Revenue shrinking
TOL
Why this score
- Buying back stock
- Raising its dividend
- Durable high returns
The companies
MTHMeritage Homes Corporation
Why now
Residential Construction · market cap $4.7b. 17% off the 52-week high of $85.38. Revenue -8% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating. PEG 0.54 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 8 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $81.63 (implying +15% upside).
Moat
Moat signals from the quantitative card are modest — profitability and capital efficiency are middle-of-pack. The thesis here depends on softer factors (switching costs, brand, distribution, regulatory protection) not captured by the quality-growth screen.
Risk
Revenue contracting -8% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. ROE 8% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
TOLToll Brothers Inc
Why now
Consumer products · market cap $14.1b. 11% off the 52-week high of $168.36. Revenue growing +18%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.63 — paying under fair value for the growth rate.
Moat
ROE 15% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.