COMPARE · Reviewed July 11, 2026
MTCH vs WMG
Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. MTCH scored 74.7, WMG scored 73.3 — MTCH leads.
Compare another set
MTCH
Match Group, Inc.
74.7
$38.85 · $9.1B
Score gap
1.4
MTCH leads
WMG
Warner Music Group Corp.
73.3
$28.99 · $15.1B
The model, pillar by pillar (0–100 each)
MTCH
stronger →← stronger
WMG
78
Qualityreturns · margins · balance sheet
71
63
Growthrevenue & earnings expansion
76
85
Valuevaluation vs sector peers
73
MTCH is stronger on 2 of 3 pillars.
Fundamentals, head-to-head
MTCH
WMG
$1.0bC+
FCF
$729mC+
+2.0%C
Rev
+12.6%B+
—
D/E
5.08D
15.0xB+
P/E
34.5xC+
0.35A
PEG
0.53A-
Winner per row is the stronger grade in our model; a tie or a missing value shows no highlight.
Valuation · DCF cross-check
MTCH
WMG
34% below
Price vs fair valuelower is cheaper
61% above
~-4%/yr
Growth the price implies10-yr FCF · lower = less priced in
~17%/yr
+41%
1-yr DCF upside
-40%
+51%
5-yr DCF upside
-38%
+66%
10-yr DCF upside
-34%
The DCF is a cross-check on intrinsic value, separate from the quality-growth score above.
Model signals
MTCH
Why this score
- Buying back stock
WMG
Why this score
- Raising its dividend
The companies
MTCHMatch Group, Inc.
Why now
Internet Content & Information · market cap $9.1b. Trading near 52-week high of $39.78 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. PEG 0.35 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 16 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $41.31 (implying +6% upside).
Moat
ROE 19% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -1.2%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction.
WMGWarner Music Group Corp.
Why now
Entertainment · market cap $15.1b. 18% off the 52-week high of $35.42. Revenue growing +13%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.53 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 17 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $38.12 (implying +31% upside).
Moat
ROE 61% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 161% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
D/E 5.08 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Trailing P/E 35x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.