COMPARE · Reviewed July 3, 2026
HESM vs TTE
Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. HESM scored 65.3, TTE scored 64.7 — HESM ahead by 0.5999999999999943.
HESM
Hess Midstream LP
65.3
$38.16
Score gap
0.5999999999999943
HESM leads
TTE
TotalEnergies SE
64.7
$76.69
The companies
HESMHess Midstream LP
Why now
Oil & Gas Midstream · market cap $7.9b. 14% off the 52-week high of $44.14. 6 sell-side analysts rate this an Underperform with a mean 1-yr target of $36.83 (implying -3% upside).
Moat
Net margin 23% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income — non-cash charges (depreciation, intangible amortization) are holding down GAAP earnings while cash generation stays strong.
Risk
Dividend payout 103% of earnings on a 8.0% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut. Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.
TTETotalEnergies SE
Why now
Oil & Gas Integrated · market cap $170.6b. 19% off the 52-week high of $94.17. Revenue -7% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating. PEG 0.64 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 7 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $97.47 (implying +27% upside).
Moat
ROE 13% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. $170.6b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Revenue contracting -7% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.
Base grades (each contributes ~14.3% of base composite)
| HESM | Component | TTE |
|---|---|---|
| C+70 | FCF | A-90 |
| B80 | Rev | D50 |
| C65 | D/E | B80 |
| B+85 | P/E or P/S | B+85 |
| C+70 | PEG | A-90 |
| Supplemental signals · feed the score, not on the row card | ||
| A95 | FCF Yield | B+85 |
| C65 | ROE | B80 |
| 76.6 | Base composite | 80.8 |
Adjustments (signed deltas applied on top of base)
HESM
analyst consensus weak (0% buy)-2
yield trap (yield 8.0%, payout 103%)-2
DCF cross-check (avg upside 191%)+2
ROE truncated (buyback-depleted equity)-1
Total-3
TTE
GARP sweet spot (PEG <1, positive FCF)+1
analyst consensus bullish (71% buy/strong-buy)+2
safe high yield (5.5% at 59% payout)+1
forward P/E cheaper (11 → 8)+1
Total+5
DCF cross-check (per-share value vs. live price)
| HESM upside | Horizon | TTE upside |
|---|---|---|
| +159% | 1Y | -14% |
| +185% | 5Y | -23% |
| +228% | 10Y | -33% |
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.