COMPARE · Reviewed August 7, 2026
FOUR vs PGY
Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. FOUR scored 74.5, PGY scored 88.6 — PGY leads.
Compare another set
FOUR
Shift4 Payments, Inc.
74.5
$43.36 · $4.3B
fundamentals as of
Score gap
14.1
PGY leads
PGY
Pagaya Technologies Ltd.
88.6
$21.42 · $1.8B
fundamentals as of
The model, pillar by pillar (0–100 each)
FOUR
stronger →← stronger
PGY
55
Qualityreturns · margins · balance sheet
70
100
Growthrevenue & earnings expansion
100
76
Valuevaluation vs sector peers
99
PGY is stronger on 2 of 3 pillars.
Fundamentals, head-to-head
FOUR
PGY
$433mC
FCF
$252mC
+32.4%A
Rev
+25.6%A-
2.57D
D/E
1.34C
49.8xC+
P/E
15.2xA-
0.38A
PEG
0.04A
Winner per row is the stronger grade in our model; a tie or a missing value shows no highlight.
Valuation · DCF cross-check
FOUR
PGY
39% below
Price vs fair valuelower is cheaper
56% below
~0%/yr
Growth the price implies10-yr FCF · lower = less priced in
~-14%/yr
+32%
1-yr DCF upside
+116%
+65%
5-yr DCF upside
+128%
+125%
10-yr DCF upside
+146%
The DCF is a cross-check on intrinsic value, separate from the quality-growth score above.
Model signals
FOUR
Why this score
- Buying back stock
PGY
Why this score
- Durable high returns
- Diluting shareholders
The companies
FOURShift4 Payments, Inc.
Why now
Software - Infrastructure · market cap $4.3b. Down 53% from 52-week high of $92.79 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +32% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.38 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 21 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $60.29 (implying +39% upside).
Moat
Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income — non-cash charges (depreciation, intangible amortization) are holding down GAAP earnings while cash generation stays strong. Software economics — recurring revenue, embedded customer workflows, and high gross margin all compound the moat once a base account is won. Switching costs are the lever.
Risk
D/E 2.57 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Down 53% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.41 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
PGYPagaya Technologies Ltd.
Why now
Software - Infrastructure · market cap $1.8b. Down 52% from 52-week high of $44.99 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +26% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.04 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 10 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $28.50 (implying +33% upside).
Moat
ROE 19% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income — non-cash charges (depreciation, intangible amortization) are holding down GAAP earnings while cash generation stays strong. Software economics — recurring revenue, embedded customer workflows, and high gross margin all compound the moat once a base account is won. Switching costs are the lever.
Risk
Down 52% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 5.37 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Software — competitive moat is durable until it isn't; watch net revenue retention, gross margin trends, and any new market entrant with a fundamentally lower price point.
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.